The price of gold has recently come back a little more. But not only the recent price consolidation offers good framework conditions to buy gold coins and gold bars once again.
Gold price 7 % below all-time high
This afternoon at 1:00 p.m., the troy ounce of gold is $1,452. Since reaching its high for the year at 1,560 US dollars per ounce on 4 September, the price of gold has fallen by almost 7 percent. Calculated in euros, gold is lagging behind its all-time high by the same order of magnitude at 1,318 euros. It had been reached on 3 September at 1,418 euros (basis: US gold futures). Many investors have already taken advantage of the price decline to make subsequent purchases. And this does not seem to be an unfavourable time.
Seasonal peculiarity with gold
First of all, we have seen time and again in recent years that the price of gold fell significantly in the final weeks of the year. In 2016, gold lost more than 9 percent in euro terms from November to December. In 2017 it was 8 percent (see chart below). In the past two years, gold also showed a pronounced autumn weakness. The price of gold, however, was already able to rise significantly again in December. What all these years have in common, however, is the subsequent January rally. And we have been experiencing this since 2014. Apart from that, the four-year upward trend in the gold price is fully intact.
(Monetary) political environment
From this point of view, it seems reasonable to buy gold again before the turn of the year. The fact that anonymous gold purchases in German precious metal trading will then only be possible up to an amount of 1,999.99 euros according to the current legal plans of the Federal Government may be another argument for some investors. The fundamental reasons remain the same anyway. The uncertainties on the financial markets and in the global economy have increased. Alternatives to gold are negative interest rates (real asset loss) for defensive forms of investment or higher risk. The stock markets have been bullish for more than ten years. Real estate is expensive. And monetary policy is clearly aimed at a systematic devaluation of credit money.